A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
